HR monitors (depending on make) estimate calories burned on your height/weight/age/RHR/MHR and any other details you put into it - in particular its built-in fitness tests, once you do them, e.g. Polar's "OwnZone Index".
Treadmills use the speed/grade and your weight to predict a general energy expenditure but totally ignores economy.
Neither are perfect, but I'd go with the HR monitor.